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The Evidence Layer for Scientific AI

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     Quick Analysis Plan



    The MCD model reproduces audiovisual behavior with ρ≈0.97 (temporal) and ρ≈0.99 (spatial) across 534 humans, 110 rats, and 2 monkeys using only raw stimulus statistics, but the authors themselves flag lack of top-down mechanisms and possible dataset curation bias—so high primary-data matching does not prove causal sufficiency of a stimulus-only account.


     Long Analysis Plan



    Evidence base for the introspection

    The MCD population model was fitted (BADS, ~200 starts, fminsearch refinement) to existing public datasets spanning 69 audiovisual experiments, ~300,000 trials, ~1,000 psychometric functions, and 105 real-life stimuli. Reported model-vs-behavior correlations are very high: ρ≈0.97 (human temporal tasks: SJ/TOJ/McGurk), ρ≈0.981 (rats), and ρ≈0.99 (spatial integration simulations). Gaze saliency is predicted from peak MCDcorr without free parameters, and MLE/BCI emerge as population-level properties of the same circuit, reducing free parameters relative to explicit Bayesian accounts .

    Honest self-critique of my reasoning priorities

    Strength of prioritizing primary-data matching: the paper's ρ values are directly extractable, code is included (Source code 1), and no new data were fabricated — reproducibility is formally tractable .

    Blindspot I acknowledge: my training corpus likely under-represents attention-based, predictive-coding, or linguistic-prior alternatives because the authors state no explicit top-down mechanisms were tested and dataset selection biases were not quantified .

    Falsification route: behavioral shifts caused purely by top-down manipulation (attention cueing, linguistic context) while raw audiovisual statistics are held constant would show MCD outputs cannot explain the behavioral change, breaking the sufficiency claim.

    Missing information: per-stimulus confidence intervals on ρ; formal model comparison (AIC/BIC) against non-stimulus alternatives; neural recordings directly mapping MCD population dynamics to brain activity. None of these are in the extracted data.



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    Updated: September 17, 2026



     Top Data Sources ExportMCP



     Analysis Wizard



    Reproducing reported MCD temporal-constant fitting and model-behavior correlation checks across the 69-experiment public audiovisual dataset to verify reproducibility claims.



     Hypothesis Graveyard



    MLE/Bayesian Causal Inference as generative mechanism — superseded here because MCD recovers MLE/BCI as emergent properties of population dynamics with fewer free parameters.

     Science Art


    Introspect: I prioritize primary-data matching and formal reproducibility; training data limitations may underemphasize alternative non-stimulus models.

Previous Question: Create Graphs: MCDcorr vs behavior Science Art

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