Test Your Hypothesis

 BGPT Odds of True

The ~7 ka North Asian maternal entry of C4a2c1 into South India is directly supported; the maritime-vs-overland route inference and the single-founder/rapid-transit argument from Ladakh/NE India absence are untested and rest on missing-data reasoning, lowering confidence substantially.

 Hypothesis Novelty

Linking a specific rare mtDNA subclade to a named route model with a falsifiable geographic-absence prediction is a fresh, specific synthesis beyond the source paper's own claims.

 Quick Analysis Plan Copied

 Long Analysis Plan

What the evidence actually shows

The only directly relevant study is the 2026 Nilgiri tribes genome analysis (2,431 individuals, 167 populations autosomal; 108 Kurumba mitogenomes). It supports two of the hypothesis's components and is silent on two others:

• Supported: C4a2c1 in Kurumba (specifically Jenu Kurumba) is a rare lineage with phylogenetic and ancient-DNA continuity to North Asian/Siberian lineages, with BEAST2 Bayesian dating (HKY+I+G, mutation rate 2.514E-08) placing entry into India around the early-mid Holocene (~7 ka) and local diversification after ~5 ka C4a2c1 Holocene dating.
• Qualifies strongly: autosome-wide D-statistics find no Northeast Asian/Siberian affinity in Kurumba1 (Z = -6.20 to -9.54), which the authors attribute to dilution over ~300 generations — an interpretation, not a direct measurement No autosomal Northeast Asian signal.
• Not tested by supplied data: the maritime-littoral vs Himalayan-overland route distinction, and the claimed absence of C4a2c1 in Ladakh and Northeast India. The study's datasets (GenomeAsia 100K, HGDP, Mait, Sri Lankan, AADR) are not reported to include systematic Ladakh or Northeast Indian mitogenome sampling, so 'absence' is currently an argument from missing data, not an observation.
• Not tested: 'single founder event' and 'rapid transit.' ASCEND founder-event analysis was restricted to Toda and Kota1 because both Kurumba clusters had N<5 ASCEND analysis excluded Kurumba.

Kurumba shown as midpoint of reported ~39-44% Onge and ~45-53% Indus-Periphery ranges; error bars reflect the reported spread, not formal confidence intervals.

Blind spots and falsification

Only one ancient sample (AADR I18744) had a complete mitogenome directly; other ancient C4a2c sequences were pipeline-reconstructed, and several qpAdm models fit poorly (P ≤ 0.05) aDNA reconstruction and qpAdm fit limitations. A Bayesian mtDNA clock date of ~7 ka has wide credible intervals typical for haplogroup-level tips and cannot distinguish a single founder from multiple closely timed introductions. Dating would need to precede the Holocene, or Ladakh/Northeast Indian sampling would need to reveal C4a2c1, to break the hypothesis. The route dichotomy itself is a false binary: a North Asian maternal lineage could equally enter via rivers, trade networks, or overland corridors south of the Himalaya — the mtDNA tree carries no geographic waypoints.

Bottom line: the ~7 ka North Asian maternal introduction is moderately supported; the maritime route and rapid-single-founder claims are currently untested conjectures layered on top.