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     Quick Analysis Plan



    A robust N=240, 12-week mechanistic RCT should pair shotgun metagenomics and LC-MS metabolomics with fMRI reward measures and pre-registered causal mediation, since kynurenine pathway activity is tractable, inflammation-linked, and mechanistically connected to brain function in supplied evidence .


     Long Analysis Plan



    1. Design & Power Framework

    Randomize 240 depressed adults 1:1 to MedDiet vs Western diet for 12 weeks, stratified by baseline MADWS severity, sex, and antidepressant use. Primary outcome: change in reward-circuit fMRI activation (nucleus accumbens/ventral striatum). Mediators: SCFA (acetate, propionate, butyrate) and kynurenine-pathway metabolites (KYN, KYNA, QUIN, 3-HK) from plasma; gut taxa from shotgun metagenomics. Sample size of 120/arm gives ~80% power (Ξ±=0.05) to detect fMRI dβ‰ˆ0.36 and mediation indirect-effect dβ‰ˆ0.40, assuming 15% attrition. Provided trials confirm feasibility of 12-week MedDiet vs Western comparisons in adults .

    2. Bioinformatics Pipeline (Metagenomics & Metabolomics)

    • Shotgun metagenomics: nf-core/mag + Snakemake for host-read removal (Bowtie2 vs hg38), taxonomic profiling (MetaPhlAn4/Kraken2-Bracken), functional profiling (HUMAnN3), pathway reconstruction. Track SCFA-producing taxa (Faecalibacterium, Roseburia, Bifidobacterium) and kynurenine-metabolizing taxa (Lactobacillus, Bifidobacterium with kynureninase homologs).
    • Metabolomics: LC-MS/MS targeted panel for SCFA and KYN metabolites. KP flux directionality is established as measurable across brain/blood compartments .
    • KP biomarker scoring: Compute KMO/KAT activity ratios analogous to prior clinical KP enzyme assays, where KMO elevation tracked disease state .

    3. fMRI Reward Circuitry

    Use monetary incentive delay (MID) task pre/post; ROI analysis of nucleus accumbens, ventral tegmental area, and medial prefrontal cortex. Aim for ~0.8mm isotropic multi-band EPI, ~100-120 TRs per run.

    4. Mediation Analysis

    • Pre-registered causal chain: Diet β†’ Ξ”microbiome β†’ Ξ”metabolites (SCFA ↑, KYN/KYNA ratio ↓) β†’ Ξ”reward fMRI β†’ Ξ”depression (MADRS/HAMD).
    • Use counterfactual mediation (causal-mediation R package, or Python `statsmodels` + custom bootstrapping) with 5,000 bootstrap iterations; adjust for BMI, age, sex, baseline inflammation (hsCRP), and antidepressant use. Test for moderated mediation by baseline KP activity.
    • Sensitivity analyses: E-values for unmeasured confounding; negative-control outcome (non-reward fMRI ROI).

    5. Known Uncertainties & Blindspots

    • KP manipulation evidence is strongest in mice and tumor/pregnancy models β€” not directly in depression .
    • Whether the human gut microbiome directly modulates plasma KYN in adults remains uncertain; IDO1 is inflammatory-driven, so hsCRP-adjusted analyses are essential .
    • Power to detect triple-mediation (microbiomeβ†’metaboliteβ†’brain) may be underpowered at N=240; consider secondary pooling or Bayesian hierarchical mediation to reduce multiple-comparison burden.



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    Updated: November 02, 2026

     Top Data Sources ExportMCP



     DataGen



    Assumptions: simulated K/T ratio drawn from plausible human range (~1.3–4.3 ΞΌM serum KYN context) assuming 20–25% reduction over 12 weeks on MedDiet; uncertainty is illustrative SD of 0.4, not derived from observed trial data.

    Generated scientific data; not direct experimental measurements.

     Analysis Wizard



    Building a reproducible pipeline that processes shotgun metagenomics, LC-MS metabolomics, and fMRI data from the randomized dietary trial and estimates counterfactual causal mediation linking diet to brain-reward changes.



     Hypothesis Graveyard



    Direct microbial kynurenine depletion as the dominant mechanism: supplied evidence shows KP activation is inflammation (IDO1)-driven rather than microbiome-degradation driven in human plasma, so microbial KYN metabolism is likely secondary to systemic inflammatory tone.

     Science Art


    Design Experiments: A smaller mechanistic RCT (N=240) randomizing depressed adults to MedDiet vs Western diet for 12 weeks with pre/post stool shotgun metagenomics, plasma SCFA and kynurenine profiling, and fMRI measures of reward circuitry to test gut-metabolite-brain mediation. Science Art

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