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"In nature, nothing exists alone."
- Rachel Carson
Quick Analysis Plan
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The HD CSF study reports a consistently reduced TNFRSF8 (sCD30) effect in both cohorts: discovery adjusted β = -1.11 NPX (p = 7.6×10⁻⁸) and validation β = -2.19 unadjusted / -2.06 age-sex adjusted (p < 0.001), with the validation effect roughly twice as large — indicating same-direction replication but possible cohort-scale heterogeneity requiring formal meta-analytic harmonization .
Long Analysis Plan
Cross-Cohort Effect Sizes: Reported Values
The study reports TNFRSF8 reduction in HDGECs vs controls in both cohorts. Discovery (Uppsala, n=36 HDGECs/40 controls): adjusted β = -1.11 NPX, p = 7.6×10⁻⁸ (survived multiple-testing correction at p=0.00024). Validation (Stockholm/Gothenburg, n=19 HDGECs/14 controls): β = -2.19 (CI -2.78 to -1.59) unadjusted; β = -2.06 (CI -2.75 to -1.30), p < 0.001 after age/sex adjustment. Site differences between validation centers were statistically corrected .
Caveat: the ~2-fold larger validation β is BGPT inference, not an author claim; the validation cohort is smaller (33 vs 76 participants), and a discovery cohort including premanifest carriers (20/42) could dilute its mean effect if TNFRSF8 decline is stage-dependent .
Analysis Plan
Harmonize: load NPX values for both cohorts; verify same Olink assay and batch normalization; z-score TNFRSF8 within cohort to enable cross-cohort comparison of standardized effect sizes (Cohen's d from β and residual SD).
Recompute effect estimates: linear model TNFRSF8 ~ HD_status + age + sex per cohort (statsmodels OLS), extract β, SE, 95% CI; reproduce reported values as validation of pipeline.
Moderation test: pooled model with cohort × HD_status interaction to formally test whether effect size differs between cohorts (Q/I² heterogeneity), rather than eyeballing the 2-fold difference.
Meta-analysis: inverse-variance weighted fixed- and random-effects pooled β; sensitivity analysis restricted to manifest HDGECs (stage-matched comparison).
Contextualize: overlay longitudinal slope (β = -0.11 NPX/yr, p = 0.017) and clinical correlations (cUHDRS β = 0.06; TFC ρ = 0.65, n = 16) to assess whether effect-size divergence tracks stage distribution.
Missing for a rigorous comparison: discovery-cohort CI/SE for the adjusted β, per-subject NPX data (supplementary material), and validation cUHDRS scores — the latter prevented cross-cohort clinical-correlation replication .
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Hypothesis Graveyard
TNFRSF8 reduction as a primary neurodegeneration marker: weaker than the NfL hypothesis because TNFRSF8 was not significantly associated with predicted years to onset in premanifest carriers (p = 0.059, positive trend), whereas NfL was (p = 2.7×10⁻⁴).