Find the Strongest Evidence

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How the climate system changes

Greenhouse gases absorb outgoing infrared radiation, changing Earth’s energy balance. The supplied review reports industrial-era increases in CO2 from 280 to approximately 400 ppm, methane from 700 to 1,721 ppb, and nitrous oxide from 275 to 312 ppb, alongside historical warming and sea-level rise. These values come from a 1999 review and are not current observations. Atmospheric greenhouse-gas evidence

Observed and modelled consequences

• In the Nerang River catchment, an eight-model CMIP5 ensemble projected slightly lower Hinze Dam inflows in 2075–2084 than in 2000–2009; the largest reported monthly decrease was about 124.42 ML/day under RCP4.5 and 91.58 ML/day under RCP8.5.
• A modelled 0.8 m sea-level-rise boundary increased downstream median river levels by roughly 0.75–0.80 m in many months, with greater sensitivity nearer the river mouth.
• In Busan, modelled 100-year compound-flood damage was KRW 1,488.4 billion, compared with KRW 752.8 billion for storm surge and KRW 729.8 billion for urban flooding considered separately. This result is scenario-dependent, not a global estimate.

Catchment and sea-level modelling Compound-flood damage modelling

Feedbacks and limits of inference

Thawing permafrost can release greenhouse gases over decades to centuries, potentially amplifying warming; the cited synthesis stresses uncertainty about deep carbon and abrupt-thaw processes. Coastal wetlands store carbon, but their global sink strength is vulnerable to warming, sea-level rise, and habitat loss. Estimates are uncertain because regional measurements, area estimates, and burial methods vary substantially. Permafrost carbon feedback Coastal carbon-sink evidence

Confidence: high that greenhouse gases affect climate; moderate for the specific regional projections supplied here. The main uncertainties concern future emissions, model structure, regional precipitation, compound-event dynamics, ecosystem feedback magnitude, and whether historical calibration relationships remain valid in future conditions.