Pull exact reported results from versioned records, each one traced to its paper.Know what the science actually supports before you trust the answer.
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"Biology is also more important than physics, as measured by its economic consequences, by its ethical implications, or by its effects on human welfare."
- Freeman Dyson
Quick Analysis Plan
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Plan: pool hypertension trial data with PRISMA screening, random-effects models in R/Python, and heterogeneity/subgroup analysis; supplied meta-analyses show intensive SBP lowering reduces major cardiovascular events by 14% (95% CI 4β22) and stroke by 22% (95% CI 10β32) versus less intensive control.
Long Analysis Plan
Evidence Basis for the Meta-Analysis Plan
The supplied records span 8 meta-analyses/RCT pools (β90,000+ participants). Anchoring results: intensive BP lowering (mean achieved 133 vs 140 mm Hg, 19 trials, 44,989 participants, 3.8-year follow-up) reduced major cardiovascular events RR 0.86 (95% CI 0.78β0.96), MI RR 0.87 (0.76β1.00), stroke RR 0.78 (0.68β0.90), with modestly more serious adverse events (1.2 vs 0.9%/year) . A network meta-analysis found target SBP 120β129 mm Hg optimal (SPRINT achieved 126.7 vs 137.4 mm Hg, n=9,361) .
Renal outcomes in nondiabetic CKD (9 trials, 8,127 patients) showed no significant benefit of intensive control (composite renal RR 0.99, CI 0.81β1.21) .
Statistics (R netmeta/metafor or Python statsmodels): DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models; IΒ²/Q heterogeneity; subgroup analyses (age, diabetes, CKD, proteinuria); meta-regression on achieved SBP; trial-sequential and funnel/Egger tests for publication bias.
Age-stratified modeling: SBP reduction per INDANA age groups (8.3/10.7/9.4 mm Hg in young/old/very old) with mortality endpoints only reported for the 60β79 group (17% total, 21% CV mortality reduction) .
Sensitivity analyses: Exclude acute-stroke trials (early BP control post-ischemic stroke showed null effects, e.g., 1-month death RR 1.22, CI 0.69β2.16) and pre-stroke medication discontinuation (IPD meta-analysis, 2,860 patients, null on death/dependency) .
Network geometry + vis-network graph of trial comparisons; bootstrap CIs (10,000 iterations) for indirect estimates.
Blindspots to Address
Aggregate (not individual patient) data limits subgroup power in the Lancet and network meta-analyses; publication bias and English-only inclusion were flagged by authors; drug-class effects (thiazides as reference) and long-term quality-of-life outcomes remain unmeasured . Falsification: a large IPD RCT showing no MACE benefit of SBP <130 mm Hg would overturn the core conclusion.
Building a random-effects hypertension meta-analysis pipeline that pools trial risk ratios, computes heterogeneity, generates a forest plot, and tests publication bias from extracted trial data.
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Hypothesis Graveyard
DBP reduction is the primary driver of CV benefit in hypertension β overturned by INDANA IPD showing SBP lowering explains the effect across all age groups.
Early aggressive BP lowering after acute ischemic stroke improves outcomes β falsified by pooled RRs near 1.0 with CIs crossing 1.